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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+7.43vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+5.26vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+4.77vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.40+6.17vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.18+1.18vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.92+5.55vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.68+0.66vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.42+0.24vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.75-0.12vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.38-0.57vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.10vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.75-3.73vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.21-0.29vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.55-6.01vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.38-5.35vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.60-3.28vs Predicted
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172.13-4.43vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-5.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.43U. S. Naval Academy2.607.2%1st Place
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7.26Brown University2.918.8%1st Place
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7.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.3%1st Place
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10.17Boston College2.404.0%1st Place
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6.18Harvard University3.1811.3%1st Place
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11.55Connecticut College1.922.9%1st Place
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7.66Roger Williams University2.687.6%1st Place
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8.24Yale University2.426.6%1st Place
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8.88Georgetown University2.755.7%1st Place
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9.43Bowdoin College2.384.5%1st Place
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8.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.2%1st Place
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8.27Dartmouth College2.756.9%1st Place
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12.71Tulane University2.212.1%1st Place
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7.99Stanford University2.557.2%1st Place
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9.65College of Charleston2.385.0%1st Place
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12.72University of Pennsylvania1.602.4%1st Place
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12.572.132.1%1st Place
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12.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.552.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 3.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| CJ Mckenna | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 18.4% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Samuel Gavula | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 17.9% |
| Dana Haig | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 16.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.