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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+7.19vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+5.20vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.42+5.02vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.21+8.79vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.18+1.16vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.59+6.08vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.02vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.92+3.88vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.55-1.08vs Predicted
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102.13+2.66vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.68-3.10vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston2.38-2.43vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.60-4.21vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.40-4.04vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-7.03vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.38-6.67vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University2.75-8.12vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-5.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.19Dartmouth College2.757.2%1st Place
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7.2Brown University2.919.1%1st Place
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8.02Yale University2.427.1%1st Place
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12.79Tulane University2.212.4%1st Place
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6.16Harvard University3.1811.2%1st Place
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12.08University of Pennsylvania1.592.6%1st Place
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9.02St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.6%1st Place
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11.88Connecticut College1.922.8%1st Place
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7.92Stanford University2.557.0%1st Place
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12.662.132.5%1st Place
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7.9Roger Williams University2.688.4%1st Place
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9.57College of Charleston2.384.1%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Naval Academy2.605.5%1st Place
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9.96Boston College2.404.2%1st Place
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7.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.8%1st Place
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9.33Bowdoin College2.384.7%1st Place
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8.88Georgetown University2.755.9%1st Place
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12.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.552.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 19.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.2% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 12.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| CJ Mckenna | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Dana Haig | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 18.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 18.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.