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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+6.78vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.75+6.86vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+3.18vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.42+4.04vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.16vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.71vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.75+1.13vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.38+1.56vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.55-0.83vs Predicted
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102.13+2.75vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+1.75vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.68-4.00vs Predicted
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13Tulane University1.77-1.36vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.40-3.90vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.92-3.45vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.38-6.43vs Predicted
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17Brown University2.91-9.85vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.60-5.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.6%1st Place
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8.86Georgetown University2.756.3%1st Place
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6.18Harvard University3.1811.2%1st Place
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8.04Yale University2.427.0%1st Place
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9.16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.574.5%1st Place
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8.71U. S. Naval Academy2.607.2%1st Place
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8.13Dartmouth College2.757.0%1st Place
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9.56College of Charleston2.385.2%1st Place
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8.17Stanford University2.556.7%1st Place
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12.752.132.1%1st Place
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12.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.552.2%1st Place
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8.0Roger Williams University2.687.0%1st Place
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11.64Tulane University1.773.2%1st Place
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10.1Boston College2.404.7%1st Place
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11.55Connecticut College1.923.2%1st Place
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9.57Bowdoin College2.384.9%1st Place
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7.15Brown University2.918.5%1st Place
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12.92University of Pennsylvania1.601.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Dana Haig | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 18.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 18.8% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Asher Zittrer | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 11.1% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.8% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 19.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.