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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+6.87vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+6.86vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.55+4.79vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.21+8.63vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.42+2.81vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+6.49vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.59+5.18vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.40+1.88vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.38+0.10vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.07+2.12vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.60-2.70vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.18-6.02vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.75-4.59vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-6.62vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.91-7.79vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.92-4.69vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston2.38-7.68vs Predicted
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182.13-5.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.87Dartmouth College2.756.7%1st Place
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8.86St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.0%1st Place
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7.79Stanford University2.557.6%1st Place
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12.63Tulane University2.212.1%1st Place
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7.81Yale University2.427.1%1st Place
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12.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.552.3%1st Place
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12.18University of Pennsylvania1.592.1%1st Place
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9.88Boston College2.404.4%1st Place
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9.1Bowdoin College2.385.0%1st Place
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12.12Roger Williams University2.072.7%1st Place
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8.3U. S. Naval Academy2.606.2%1st Place
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5.98Harvard University3.1811.9%1st Place
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8.41Georgetown University2.756.6%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.3%1st Place
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7.21Brown University2.918.6%1st Place
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11.31Connecticut College1.922.8%1st Place
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9.32College of Charleston2.385.8%1st Place
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12.372.132.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maddie Hawkins | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
Owen Hennessey | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
Wiley Rogers | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 16.7% |
Carmen Cowles | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
Jack Vanderhorst | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 16.7% |
Christopher Sharpless | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 13.4% |
Michaela O'Brien | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% |
Thomas Hall | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
Cameron Wood | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 13.5% |
Nathan Smith | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
Justin Callahan | 11.9% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Mariner Fagan | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% |
Colman Schofield | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
Liam O'Keefe | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
CJ Mckenna | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% |
Benjamin Dufour | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
Dana Haig | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 15.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.