Race 2A

washington-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jonathan Kelly 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 4.8% 5.7% 6.0% 9.0% 10.0% 14.1% 17.0% 13.6% 11.7%
Jedidiah Bechtel 14.1% 14.9% 15.5% 15.4% 13.0% 10.3% 8.5% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Iain Shand 4.3% 6.1% 8.2% 8.9% 10.2% 10.6% 11.2% 12.2% 11.4% 8.4% 5.9% 2.5%
Jack Welburn 33.0% 23.5% 17.3% 11.3% 7.4% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Ziman 8.6% 8.6% 10.8% 11.5% 12.3% 12.3% 12.0% 10.1% 6.5% 4.7% 2.3% 0.4%
Jonathan Weed 16.9% 18.2% 16.1% 14.8% 11.2% 9.2% 5.9% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Can Dilikoglu 5.3% 7.0% 8.3% 8.8% 10.2% 11.4% 12.3% 11.8% 11.7% 7.5% 4.2% 1.5%
Pearce Bragaw 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 2.2% 2.9% 4.5% 5.9% 5.9% 9.6% 12.8% 20.6% 30.0%
Asher Green 7.8% 9.3% 10.1% 11.2% 12.4% 12.5% 12.8% 9.8% 7.4% 4.0% 2.1% 0.5%
Luke Plecinoga 1.1% 1.1% 2.1% 2.9% 3.4% 4.9% 4.5% 7.5% 10.2% 13.6% 18.8% 29.9%
Patrick Cashin 2.2% 2.8% 2.9% 3.8% 5.6% 6.0% 7.1% 10.5% 11.5% 15.7% 17.8% 14.1%
Bryan Lawrence 2.8% 3.4% 3.9% 4.5% 5.7% 7.6% 8.8% 11.7% 13.2% 14.9% 14.1% 9.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.