Race 4A

washington-fall-open

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jack Welburn 33.2% 25.6% 16.7% 11.9% 6.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Ziman 7.8% 8.9% 10.6% 11.5% 12.9% 11.2% 9.8% 11.2% 8.1% 4.9% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Jedidiah Bechtel 15.7% 14.4% 14.2% 13.5% 13.2% 10.2% 9.0% 5.2% 2.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Jonathan Kelly 2.1% 2.5% 4.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.7% 7.5% 8.1% 13.3% 13.4% 13.8% 12.8% 6.4%
Can Dilikoglu 5.1% 6.4% 7.1% 9.4% 10.3% 12.0% 12.9% 11.9% 10.1% 7.7% 4.2% 2.3% 0.4%
Jonathan Weed 16.6% 16.8% 17.7% 14.1% 12.0% 9.2% 5.4% 4.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Iain Shand 4.2% 6.4% 6.9% 8.1% 9.2% 11.7% 11.2% 11.5% 10.9% 9.4% 6.7% 3.1% 0.7%
Brooke Murphy-Petri 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 3.8% 4.5% 6.9% 10.5% 17.8% 46.8%
Asher Green 7.3% 8.6% 9.3% 10.8% 11.5% 13.0% 13.6% 9.8% 8.1% 4.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Bryan Lawrence 3.1% 2.9% 4.5% 5.2% 5.9% 6.6% 9.2% 10.9% 13.1% 12.6% 13.1% 8.8% 4.0%
Pearce Bragaw 1.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 3.7% 4.3% 5.7% 6.5% 8.2% 12.3% 17.0% 18.8% 16.3%
Luke Plecinoga 0.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.7% 6.4% 7.9% 12.2% 15.0% 21.1% 17.7%
Patrick Cashin 2.5% 2.5% 3.4% 4.6% 4.5% 6.0% 7.2% 9.7% 10.8% 14.3% 13.8% 13.5% 7.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.