Race 5A

washington-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Robert Ziman 7.0% 8.5% 11.5% 11.0% 11.7% 12.0% 13.1% 10.6% 7.2% 4.9% 2.0% 0.7%
Jonathan Kelly 2.5% 2.8% 3.8% 4.3% 5.6% 7.0% 8.9% 10.2% 12.4% 14.8% 15.6% 12.0%
Jonathan Weed 16.6% 18.4% 17.3% 14.9% 11.2% 8.8% 6.7% 3.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Jack Welburn 32.6% 26.4% 16.2% 11.8% 6.9% 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Asher Green 8.2% 8.2% 9.4% 12.2% 13.2% 11.3% 11.4% 11.5% 7.8% 4.2% 2.1% 0.4%
Iain Shand 5.0% 5.7% 6.5% 8.2% 10.5% 12.2% 12.1% 12.6% 11.6% 8.8% 5.1% 1.8%
Jedidiah Bechtel 14.5% 14.9% 15.0% 13.9% 13.0% 11.2% 7.4% 5.0% 3.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Can Dilikoglu 6.1% 7.0% 8.1% 9.1% 10.0% 11.1% 11.8% 13.5% 9.3% 8.5% 4.0% 1.6%
Bryan Lawrence 2.8% 3.0% 4.7% 5.0% 6.9% 8.7% 10.0% 11.1% 13.3% 14.0% 13.1% 7.5%
Pearce Bragaw 1.4% 1.7% 2.4% 2.9% 3.6% 3.5% 4.6% 6.6% 9.7% 14.3% 20.4% 29.1%
Patrick Cashin 1.9% 1.8% 3.1% 3.5% 4.5% 6.3% 7.1% 8.5% 13.6% 16.7% 17.7% 15.2%
Luke Plecinoga 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% 3.1% 3.0% 4.3% 5.5% 7.0% 9.3% 12.0% 19.1% 31.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.