Race 4B

washington-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Stefano Palamara 15.6% 15.0% 14.8% 13.2% 12.7% 10.3% 7.6% 5.0% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Tanner Kelly 27.6% 22.0% 18.4% 12.9% 8.6% 5.0% 2.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonah Hatt 9.8% 11.2% 10.9% 11.5% 12.5% 11.8% 10.1% 8.4% 6.6% 4.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1%
Cho-Cho Williams 10.2% 9.4% 12.1% 11.4% 11.3% 12.8% 11.1% 8.8% 6.5% 3.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Hartley Meyer 2.4% 3.8% 3.1% 5.0% 5.9% 5.8% 7.0% 8.6% 12.2% 14.6% 15.0% 11.5% 4.9%
Kieran Elliott 6.0% 5.1% 6.0% 7.5% 8.2% 9.1% 10.1% 12.8% 10.4% 10.9% 7.8% 4.4% 1.5%
Tryg van Wyk 10.9% 12.6% 11.2% 12.2% 10.8% 11.4% 10.1% 8.2% 6.0% 4.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
David Berson 2.8% 2.9% 4.3% 5.2% 5.3% 7.5% 8.5% 10.3% 12.3% 14.3% 13.2% 9.3% 4.1%
Richard Kertatos 3.5% 5.2% 4.9% 6.2% 6.7% 7.8% 8.9% 11.5% 11.8% 12.7% 11.2% 6.7% 2.9%
Ossian Kamal 8.1% 8.5% 10.5% 10.6% 10.5% 10.1% 12.4% 10.4% 8.4% 6.0% 3.0% 1.4% 0.1%
Daniel Dickson 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.5% 3.4% 4.2% 6.1% 7.4% 12.7% 19.4% 38.2%
Caroline Fortier 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 3.1% 3.0% 4.8% 5.7% 8.4% 11.2% 15.6% 22.1% 20.5%
Alexander Macaulay 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 2.5% 2.9% 3.1% 4.2% 7.2% 8.2% 15.2% 23.5% 27.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.