Race 3A

bu

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kyle Carney 16.5% 16.1% 14.9% 12.0% 9.5% 9.7% 8.1% 4.3% 4.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Colin MURPHY 18.4% 16.5% 15.7% 11.8% 10.1% 8.1% 7.3% 5.0% 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Emmett Weeks 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 5.9% 7.6% 8.5% 6.3% 9.2% 9.7% 10.8% 10.9% 12.6% 5.7%
John McGlynn 8.5% 9.2% 7.6% 11.8% 9.2% 8.7% 8.8% 9.7% 8.1% 7.7% 6.0% 3.5% 1.2%
Sarah Fiske 7.1% 6.9% 7.6% 8.9% 8.0% 7.3% 7.5% 9.3% 11.2% 10.3% 7.8% 5.3% 2.8%
Luke O'Connor 9.2% 8.7% 10.5% 9.9% 8.4% 10.3% 9.1% 8.7% 7.5% 7.0% 5.7% 4.4% 0.6%
Margaret Bacon 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% 6.8% 6.6% 7.8% 9.2% 8.6% 10.2% 9.7% 10.5% 7.0% 2.9%
Jacob Hardy 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 2.7% 2.0% 2.3% 1.5% 3.4% 5.6% 6.9% 13.4% 57.0%
Elizabeth Glivinski 9.3% 8.4% 9.9% 9.3% 10.1% 9.5% 8.8% 9.9% 7.9% 5.5% 5.9% 4.3% 1.2%
Patrick Penwell 6.1% 6.0% 4.8% 5.9% 8.0% 7.7% 10.4% 7.0% 9.0% 8.7% 10.3% 10.3% 5.8%
Jesse Thomas 6.3% 7.4% 7.0% 7.7% 9.1% 8.3% 9.2% 9.8% 9.4% 8.2% 8.7% 6.1% 2.8%
Michael Rottier 3.2% 4.9% 4.4% 4.8% 5.8% 6.5% 7.5% 8.1% 7.3% 11.4% 12.1% 14.4% 9.6%
Andrew Britton 2.8% 3.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.9% 5.6% 5.5% 8.9% 9.5% 10.1% 12.1% 17.7% 10.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.