← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.11+2.38vs Predicted
-
2Webb Institute1.71-0.37vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Stony Brook-0.58+1.54vs Predicted
-
4Syracuse University-0.66+0.48vs Predicted
-
5SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-0.50vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Military Academy-2.69+0.55vs Predicted
-
7University of Notre Dame0.49-4.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.1112.0%1st Place
-
1.63Webb Institute1.7157.4%1st Place
-
4.54SUNY Stony Brook-0.584.5%1st Place
-
4.48Syracuse University-0.664.7%1st Place
-
4.5SUNY Stony Brook-0.604.6%1st Place
-
6.55U. S. Military Academy-2.690.3%1st Place
-
2.94University of Notre Dame0.4916.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lawrence | 12.0% | 19.4% | 23.9% | 19.6% | 15.2% | 8.8% | 1.1% |
| Calvin Schmid | 57.4% | 27.4% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 4.5% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 18.1% | 21.8% | 26.9% | 7.2% |
| Maren Behnke | 4.7% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 18.4% | 22.1% | 25.7% | 6.7% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 4.6% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 19.3% | 24.0% | 25.5% | 5.9% |
| Raymond Shattuck | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 78.7% |
| Ethan Stone | 16.6% | 26.2% | 23.8% | 18.4% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.