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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.88+8.28vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.21+5.80vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.53+7.86vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida2.51+6.49vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.98+3.57vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50+4.74vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.50-0.51vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.29+3.51vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.01-0.55vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.23-2.18vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.59-0.50vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-4.87vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38-1.96vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.97-5.61vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.71-5.23vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.52-5.31vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College2.47-6.05vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.51-7.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.28U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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7.8Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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10.86Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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10.49University of South Florida2.510.0%1st Place
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8.57Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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10.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.0%1st Place
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6.49Yale University3.500.1%1st Place
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11.51Connecticut College2.290.0%1st Place
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8.45Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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7.82Stanford University3.230.1%1st Place
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10.5University of Rhode Island2.590.1%1st Place
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7.13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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11.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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8.39Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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9.77Roger Williams University2.710.1%1st Place
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10.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.520.0%1st Place
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10.95Eckerd College2.470.0%1st Place
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10.53Bowdoin College2.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marissa Lihan | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Sarah Williams | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Caitlin Watson | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% |
| Colleen Hartman | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% |
| Mariel Marchand | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Marissa Golison | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% |
| Claire Dennis | 10.1% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Alexandra Romagnoli | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.1% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| Molly McKinney | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Christina Lewis | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% |
| Hanna Vincent | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Devon Rohde | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.9% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Annie Schmidt | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% |
| Liana Folger | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% |
| Amy Baxter | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| Lizzy Hamilton | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.