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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38+10.40vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.59+8.57vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.88+6.33vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.23+3.49vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.29+6.43vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.53+4.59vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.47+3.79vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-1.29vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50+1.74vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.97-1.03vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.98-2.21vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.71-1.76vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.52-2.55vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.21-6.67vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.50-8.59vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.01-7.48vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida2.51-6.21vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.51-7.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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10.57University of Rhode Island2.590.0%1st Place
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9.33U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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7.49Stanford University3.230.1%1st Place
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11.43Connecticut College2.290.0%1st Place
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10.59Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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10.79Eckerd College2.470.0%1st Place
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6.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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10.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.0%1st Place
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8.97Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.79Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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10.24Roger Williams University2.710.0%1st Place
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10.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.520.0%1st Place
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7.33Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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6.41Yale University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.52Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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10.79University of South Florida2.510.0%1st Place
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10.43Bowdoin College2.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Rohde | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 12.3% |
| Christina Lewis | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% |
| Marissa Lihan | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| Molly McKinney | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Alexandra Romagnoli | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 13.3% |
| Caitlin Watson | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% |
| Amy Baxter | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% |
| Hanna Vincent | 9.6% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Marissa Golison | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Mariel Marchand | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Annie Schmidt | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% |
| Liana Folger | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Sarah Williams | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Claire Dennis | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Colleen Hartman | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% |
| Lizzy Hamilton | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.