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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Buffalo2.44+3.86vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+2.08vs Predicted
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3Columbia University2.55+1.67vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.71+2.80vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.39vs Predicted
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6Colgate University1.69+0.77vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.95-0.92vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester-0.15+3.06vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University1.40-1.29vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.50-3.68vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto0.95-3.34vs Predicted
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13Penn State University1.35-5.07vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-0.28-2.53vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.15-3.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.86University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.08Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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4.67Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.8Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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3.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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6.77Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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6.08Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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11.06University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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7.71Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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7.32Princeton University1.500.1%1st Place
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8.66University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
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7.93Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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11.47U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.06University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 12.1% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 16.9% | 14.0% | 17.8% | 13.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 12.0% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 21.5% | 19.9% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 26.8% | 37.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 23.7% | 46.5% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 26.8% | 37.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.