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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Buffalo2.44+3.90vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+2.12vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+0.70vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.95+2.22vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.50+2.28vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.71-0.26vs Predicted
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8Penn State University1.35-0.33vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.55-4.43vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University1.40-2.28vs Predicted
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11University of Toronto0.95-2.23vs Predicted
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12Colgate University1.69-5.30vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.15-1.81vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester-0.15-2.81vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-0.28-3.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.12Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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3.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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6.22Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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7.28Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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6.74Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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7.67Penn State University1.350.1%1st Place
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4.57Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.72Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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8.77University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
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6.7Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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11.19University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.19University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.44U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 16.6% | 15.6% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 20.6% | 18.8% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 8.5% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 13.8% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 14.8% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 26.9% | 39.5% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 26.9% | 39.5% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 24.2% | 44.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.