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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Colgate University1.69+5.85vs Predicted
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2Columbia University2.55+2.62vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+0.72vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77+0.06vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.95+1.01vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.71+0.74vs Predicted
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7Penn State University1.35+0.64vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo2.44-3.13vs Predicted
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9Princeton University1.50-1.57vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-0.15+0.06vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto0.95-3.29vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.15-1.94vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University1.40-6.16vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-0.28-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.85Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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4.62Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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3.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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4.06Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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6.01Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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6.74Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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7.64Penn State University1.350.1%1st Place
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4.87University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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7.43Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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11.06University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.71University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
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11.06University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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7.84Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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11.46U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bicks | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 13.1% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 20.5% | 17.7% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 16.7% | 17.4% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 25.8% | 37.7% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 25.8% | 37.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 14.7% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 23.8% | 46.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.