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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.71vs Predicted
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2University of Buffalo2.44+2.88vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+1.07vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.71+2.81vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.55-0.44vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.50+1.30vs Predicted
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7Colgate University1.69-0.28vs Predicted
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8Penn State University1.35-0.32vs Predicted
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9University of Toronto0.95-0.16vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.95-3.86vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-0.15+0.03vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University1.40-5.22vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-0.28-2.53vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.15-3.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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4.88University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.07Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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6.81Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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4.56Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.3Princeton University1.500.1%1st Place
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6.72Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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7.68Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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8.84University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
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6.14Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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11.03University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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7.78Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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11.47U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.03University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bates | 20.5% | 17.2% | 16.7% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 11.7% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 16.1% | 16.5% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 14.3% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 7.2% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 3.3% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 18.2% | 14.9% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 27.2% | 34.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 11.0% | 21.6% | 47.9% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 27.2% | 34.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.