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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Colgate University1.69+5.87vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+2.03vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.71+3.86vs Predicted
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4University of Buffalo2.44+0.84vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.55-0.49vs Predicted
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6Queen's University1.95+0.11vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-3.34vs Predicted
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8Princeton University1.50-0.70vs Predicted
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9Penn State University1.35-1.23vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University1.40-3.36vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-0.15-0.96vs Predicted
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13University of Toronto0.95-4.07vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-0.28-2.56vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.15-3.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.87Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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4.03Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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6.86Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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4.84University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.51Columbia University2.550.2%1st Place
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6.11Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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3.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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7.3Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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7.77Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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7.64Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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11.04University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.93University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
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11.44U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.04University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bicks | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 17.2% | 17.1% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 12.9% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 15.4% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 21.4% | 18.2% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 4.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 26.3% | 35.2% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 16.6% | 15.8% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 10.9% | 21.7% | 47.6% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 26.3% | 35.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.