← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Buffalo2.44+3.90vs Predicted
-
2Columbia University2.55+2.67vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University2.77+1.08vs Predicted
-
4Queen's University1.95+2.21vs Predicted
-
5Princeton University1.50+2.27vs Predicted
-
6Penn State University1.35+1.77vs Predicted
-
7Webb Institute1.71-0.28vs Predicted
-
8Colgate University1.69-1.10vs Predicted
-
9University of Rochester-0.15+2.11vs Predicted
-
10University of Toronto0.95-1.21vs Predicted
-
12Syracuse University1.40-4.51vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Military Academy-0.28-1.62vs Predicted
-
14University of Rochester-0.15-2.89vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-11.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.9University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
-
4.67Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
-
4.08Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
-
6.21Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
-
7.27Princeton University1.500.1%1st Place
-
7.77Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
-
6.72Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
-
6.9Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
-
11.11University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
-
8.79University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
-
7.49Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
-
11.38U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
-
11.11University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
-
3.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 11.6% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 14.4% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 17.4% | 16.6% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 27.6% | 38.9% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 19.3% | 13.4% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 23.8% | 44.8% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 27.6% | 38.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 19.4% | 18.2% | 16.6% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.