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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+3.09vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.67vs Predicted
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3Colgate University1.69+3.94vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.95+2.23vs Predicted
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5University of Buffalo2.44-0.22vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.71+0.75vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester-0.15+2.96vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University1.40-1.44vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.55-5.38vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.50-3.64vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto0.95-3.31vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-0.28-1.62vs Predicted
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14Penn State University1.35-6.02vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.15-4.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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3.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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6.94Colgate University1.690.0%1st Place
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6.23Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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4.78University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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6.75Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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10.96University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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7.56Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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4.62Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.36Princeton University1.500.1%1st Place
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8.69University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
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11.38U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
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7.98Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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10.96University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Howes | 17.4% | 15.0% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 19.7% | 19.1% | 16.5% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 13.3% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 27.2% | 35.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 13.2% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 17.2% | 14.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 22.7% | 47.2% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 27.2% | 35.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.