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📊 Prediction Accuracy
14.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Buffalo2.44+3.86vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+2.07vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.71+3.88vs Predicted
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4Penn State University1.35+3.79vs Predicted
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5Colgate University1.69+1.78vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-2.38vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.95-0.92vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester-0.15+3.05vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.55-4.36vs Predicted
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11University of Toronto0.95-2.24vs Predicted
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12Princeton University1.50-4.80vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University1.40-5.15vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-0.28-2.57vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.15-3.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.86University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.07Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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6.88Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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7.79Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.78Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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3.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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6.08Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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11.05University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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4.64Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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8.76University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
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7.2Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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7.85Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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11.43U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.05University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 12.0% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 16.9% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 21.8% | 19.6% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 26.9% | 36.7% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 13.3% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 17.5% | 14.1% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 23.6% | 46.0% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 26.9% | 36.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.