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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Buffalo2.44+3.89vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.71+4.81vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+1.10vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.55+0.59vs Predicted
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5Penn State University1.35+2.65vs Predicted
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6Colgate University1.69+0.81vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-3.31vs Predicted
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8Princeton University1.50-0.67vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University1.40-1.29vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.95-4.90vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto0.95-3.33vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.15-1.78vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-0.28-2.57vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.15-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.89University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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6.81Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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4.1Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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4.59Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.65Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.81Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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3.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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7.33Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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7.71Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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6.1Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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8.67University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
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11.22University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.43U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.22University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 12.1% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 16.9% | 14.8% | 16.1% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 14.4% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 20.4% | 19.4% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 15.9% | 13.5% | 15.5% | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 9.8% | 27.5% | 39.8% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 23.3% | 45.6% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 9.8% | 27.5% | 39.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.