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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.62vs Predicted
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2Columbia University2.55+2.51vs Predicted
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3Princeton University1.50+4.35vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.48+0.72vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.71+1.64vs Predicted
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6Penn State University1.35+1.63vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.95-0.99vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester-0.15+3.06vs Predicted
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9University of Buffalo2.44-4.17vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy-0.28+0.28vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-0.15-0.94vs Predicted
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13University of Toronto0.95-4.37vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University1.40-6.22vs Predicted
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15Colgate University1.69-8.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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4.51Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.35Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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4.72Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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6.64Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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7.63Penn State University1.350.1%1st Place
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6.01Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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11.06University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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4.83University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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11.28U. S. Military Academy-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.06University of Rochester-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.63University of Toronto0.950.0%1st Place
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7.78Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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6.94Colgate University1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bates | 20.6% | 19.8% | 16.4% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 13.1% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 13.4% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 26.2% | 38.8% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 13.0% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Russell | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 10.3% | 24.0% | 44.4% | 0.0% |
| James Haley III | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 26.2% | 38.8% | 0.0% |
| Chantal Hearst | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 16.0% | 13.9% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 4.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.