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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+4.85vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.79+6.47vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+1.55vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.92+3.65vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58+0.58vs Predicted
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6Hampton University1.86+5.45vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.73+1.41vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.77-3.05vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.93-1.40vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.39+3.04vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.84-2.88vs Predicted
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12William and Mary1.27+1.43vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-4.18vs Predicted
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14Cornell University3.35-7.93vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.52-2.58vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.67-3.89vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.13-1.08vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland-0.39-1.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.85University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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8.47U. S. Naval Academy2.790.0%1st Place
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4.55St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.2%1st Place
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7.65Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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5.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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11.45Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
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8.41Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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4.95Georgetown University3.770.1%1st Place
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7.6University of Vermont2.930.1%1st Place
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13.04SUNY Maritime College1.390.0%1st Place
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8.12George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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13.43William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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8.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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6.07Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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12.42Drexel University1.520.0%1st Place
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12.11Christopher Newport University1.670.0%1st Place
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15.92Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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16.55University of Maryland-0.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Allsopp | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 15.4% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Oviatt | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shane Horsford | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Alexander Sachs | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Campbell | 14.6% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Walker | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 11.7% | 3.7% |
| William Ricketson | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Conway | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 20.0% | 13.5% | 4.7% |
| Robert Boger | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bergan | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 8.1% | 2.2% |
| Tyler Myers | 1.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 11.6% | 30.9% | 32.3% |
| Scott Gilson | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 21.8% | 53.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.