Race 3A

admiral-alymers

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

36.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Genevieve Marquardt 4.8% 5.2% 8.6% 11.4% 14.3% 13.6% 16.5% 12.4% 8.8% 4.0% 0.4%
Dan Nickerson 35.7% 26.1% 19.1% 10.4% 5.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Zachary O'Brien 4.2% 4.3% 6.9% 8.6% 10.7% 13.4% 14.5% 16.0% 13.0% 7.5% 0.9%
Zach Shapiro 3.6% 4.2% 7.0% 8.2% 11.0% 12.4% 15.8% 15.6% 13.9% 6.6% 1.7%
Andrew Morgan 5.4% 7.5% 9.9% 12.1% 13.2% 15.7% 11.8% 12.8% 7.5% 3.7% 0.4%
Matteo Alampi 5.4% 7.4% 10.0% 13.2% 13.5% 13.5% 12.7% 10.8% 9.7% 3.4% 0.4%
Brendan Cook 28.3% 28.9% 17.0% 12.6% 7.5% 3.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Emmett Weeks 9.2% 12.2% 16.8% 15.2% 14.0% 12.4% 9.6% 7.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Charles Cahill 2.1% 3.0% 3.5% 5.1% 5.9% 7.8% 9.7% 14.9% 23.9% 16.6% 7.5%
Maggie McDonald 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% 1.8% 2.3% 3.0% 3.4% 9.2% 22.1% 55.8%
Dustin Hofer 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 4.5% 5.8% 11.6% 35.2% 32.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.