Race 4A

admiral-alymers

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Dan Nickerson 34.2% 27.4% 19.7% 11.2% 4.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Morgan 5.5% 6.9% 8.9% 12.9% 13.9% 15.0% 12.3% 11.7% 9.2% 2.9% 0.8%
Emmett Weeks 8.2% 9.9% 13.5% 16.6% 15.9% 12.7% 10.6% 8.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.0%
Zach Shapiro 3.6% 4.8% 7.3% 7.1% 9.9% 12.9% 16.8% 15.5% 13.8% 6.6% 1.7%
Matteo Alampi 6.1% 7.8% 10.0% 12.2% 11.5% 14.9% 12.7% 12.2% 8.9% 3.2% 0.5%
Genevieve Marquardt 4.3% 6.4% 10.4% 10.7% 14.1% 12.1% 15.1% 12.0% 9.0% 5.1% 0.8%
Zachary O'Brien 5.3% 6.3% 6.3% 11.0% 12.4% 12.6% 14.0% 14.9% 10.9% 5.3% 1.0%
Brendan Cook 29.7% 26.7% 18.3% 11.3% 7.5% 4.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Charles Cahill 1.9% 3.2% 3.8% 4.6% 5.8% 8.1% 9.4% 14.4% 24.0% 17.6% 7.2%
Maggie McDonald 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 1.5% 2.5% 2.6% 4.2% 9.0% 22.4% 55.5%
Dustin Hofer 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 1.7% 2.6% 3.3% 4.8% 5.8% 11.5% 35.8% 32.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.