Race 4B

admiral-alymers

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

36.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Charles Proctor 24.4% 23.0% 21.0% 13.8% 8.8% 5.5% 2.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
James Scanlon 11.1% 12.5% 12.9% 15.8% 14.0% 11.5% 10.2% 7.8% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Kelly McGlynn 29.5% 25.2% 18.1% 12.9% 7.5% 4.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Francis Dougherty 0.9% 1.0% 2.0% 1.9% 3.5% 3.9% 4.8% 7.4% 13.7% 25.4% 35.5%
Lindsay Wright 5.2% 4.9% 7.6% 8.3% 9.9% 12.3% 13.7% 13.9% 13.2% 8.3% 2.7%
Steven Bell 1.8% 2.8% 3.4% 4.9% 7.2% 7.5% 9.3% 13.7% 17.3% 20.4% 11.7%
Jackson Chabot 6.5% 7.4% 8.4% 9.7% 10.5% 15.2% 13.4% 13.5% 8.5% 4.9% 2.0%
Evan Gregory 10.2% 10.1% 12.4% 14.0% 13.3% 11.6% 11.7% 8.7% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4%
Priscilla Stoll 4.4% 5.9% 6.2% 8.1% 11.2% 12.0% 14.2% 12.9% 14.0% 8.5% 2.6%
Mary Clawson 5.4% 6.3% 6.6% 8.0% 11.5% 13.1% 12.5% 14.0% 12.7% 6.6% 3.3%
Bailey Rice 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 3.1% 5.0% 7.6% 11.3% 23.2% 41.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.