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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.80+10.92vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.71+3.48vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.87+5.44vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.30-0.49vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+5.81vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.88+3.12vs Predicted
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7Tulane University1.73+1.54vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.45+1.37vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.40-2.05vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.07-0.40vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+1.14vs Predicted
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12Harvard University1.79-3.17vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-4.89vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.45-3.23vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.69-2.78vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island0.99-4.35vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University1.37-6.76vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy0.52-4.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.92Brown University1.802.5%1st Place
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5.48Yale University2.7111.6%1st Place
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8.44Dartmouth College1.875.5%1st Place
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3.51Stanford University3.3024.6%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.603.1%1st Place
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9.12Cornell University1.884.5%1st Place
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8.54Tulane University1.734.2%1st Place
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9.37College of Charleston1.454.0%1st Place
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6.95Boston College2.408.5%1st Place
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9.6Bowdoin College2.074.7%1st Place
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12.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.912.6%1st Place
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8.83Harvard University1.795.2%1st Place
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8.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.775.8%1st Place
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10.77University of Pennsylvania1.452.9%1st Place
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12.22Tufts University0.692.4%1st Place
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11.65University of Rhode Island0.992.9%1st Place
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10.24Georgetown University1.373.2%1st Place
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13.29U. S. Naval Academy0.522.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.3% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 11.6% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gray Hemans | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 24.6% | 19.4% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Snead | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Caroline Benson | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| Grace Squires | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 11.2% |
| Marbella Marlo | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Madeleine Rice | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% |
| Samantha Jensen | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 14.3% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% |
| Riley Kloc | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.0% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 25.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.