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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.66+3.79vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.58+2.16vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.36+1.73vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.44+0.48vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.87+0.05vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-1.82vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99-1.49vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan-0.01-0.83vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-4.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Washington College1.6612.1%1st Place
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4.16University of Pennsylvania1.5814.3%1st Place
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4.73University of Wisconsin1.3612.1%1st Place
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4.48Cornell University1.4414.9%1st Place
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5.05Princeton University1.879.8%1st Place
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4.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.5914.2%1st Place
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5.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.998.4%1st Place
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7.17University of Michigan-0.013.1%1st Place
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4.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.2211.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
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Stewart Gurnell | 12.1% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 7.3% |
Cole Woodworth | 14.3% | 15.6% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% |
Reed Weston | 12.1% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 6.2% |
Lauren Ehnot | 14.9% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 4.7% |
Connor Mraz | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 8.1% |
Nicholas Sessions | 14.2% | 15.2% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
Thomas Walker | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 12.9% |
Samuel Stephens | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 47.3% |
Lars Osell | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 7.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.