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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.44+3.39vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.58+2.08vs Predicted
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3Princeton University1.87+1.99vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.10vs Predicted
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5Washington College1.66-0.11vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-1.88vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99-1.52vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.36-3.27vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan-0.01-1.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.39Cornell University1.4413.2%1st Place
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4.08University of Pennsylvania1.5816.6%1st Place
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4.99Princeton University1.8710.1%1st Place
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5.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.229.8%1st Place
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4.89Washington College1.6611.3%1st Place
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4.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.5915.8%1st Place
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5.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.997.5%1st Place
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4.73University of Wisconsin1.3612.2%1st Place
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7.22University of Michigan-0.013.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
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Lauren Ehnot | 13.2% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
Cole Woodworth | 16.6% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
Connor Mraz | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 7.8% |
Lars Osell | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 9.3% |
Stewart Gurnell | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 7.0% |
Nicholas Sessions | 15.8% | 13.8% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.2% |
Thomas Walker | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 12.9% |
Reed Weston | 12.2% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 6.0% |
Samuel Stephens | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.