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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+5.10vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.72+7.27vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+2.74vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.04+3.32vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+2.79vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+0.57vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.92-1.95vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.12-0.85vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.71-0.36vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.58-0.94vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.08-3.44vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.88-0.55vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.19-2.74vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.12-5.15vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-5.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.1Dartmouth College2.389.7%1st Place
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9.27Brown University1.724.6%1st Place
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5.74University of Rhode Island2.7811.7%1st Place
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7.32Tulane University2.047.4%1st Place
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7.79Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.936.2%1st Place
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6.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.178.3%1st Place
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5.05Yale University2.9214.6%1st Place
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7.15Tufts University2.127.7%1st Place
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8.64Northeastern University1.715.3%1st Place
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9.06University of Vermont1.584.1%1st Place
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7.56Bowdoin College2.086.9%1st Place
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11.45Connecticut College0.882.2%1st Place
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10.26University of South Florida1.193.5%1st Place
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8.85Harvard University2.124.3%1st Place
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9.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.413.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Jed Bell | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.7% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Maks Groom | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% |
| Daniel Unangst | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 14.6% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Will Priebe | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% |
| Connell Phillipps | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 31.9% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 15.9% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.