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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+5.10vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+5.79vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.71+5.50vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.04+3.40vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+1.61vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.19+4.12vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.08+0.48vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.12+0.77vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.58+0.22vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.78-4.18vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.92-5.93vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.72-2.79vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-3.69vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.12-6.77vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.88-3.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.1Dartmouth College2.389.8%1st Place
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7.79Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.936.7%1st Place
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8.5Northeastern University1.714.7%1st Place
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7.4Tulane University2.046.8%1st Place
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6.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.179.4%1st Place
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10.12University of South Florida1.192.6%1st Place
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7.48Bowdoin College2.086.7%1st Place
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8.77Harvard University2.125.3%1st Place
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9.22University of Vermont1.584.1%1st Place
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5.82University of Rhode Island2.7811.8%1st Place
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5.07Yale University2.9214.0%1st Place
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9.21Brown University1.723.9%1st Place
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9.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.413.9%1st Place
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7.23Tufts University2.128.6%1st Place
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11.35Connecticut College0.882.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Maks Groom | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| Will Priebe | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.7% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 15.1% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.8% |
| Connell Phillipps | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jed Bell | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 11.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 29.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.