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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.64+3.44vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.11+3.90vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College1.55+8.10vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.03vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.87+1.51vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.18-0.41vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.43+0.95vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.76vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.21+2.96vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.74-2.83vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy1.22+1.04vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.57-7.30vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.77-3.00vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University0.43-0.09vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.74-4.75vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University-1.20+0.98vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.55-3.07vs Predicted
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18Sacred Heart University-0.16-2.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.44Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
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5.9Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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11.1Middlebury College1.550.0%1st Place
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7.03University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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6.51Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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5.59University of Rhode Island3.180.1%1st Place
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7.95Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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11.96Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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7.17SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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12.04U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.7Yale University3.570.2%1st Place
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10.0George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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13.91Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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10.25Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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16.98Wesleyan University-1.200.0%1st Place
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13.93Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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15.28Sacred Heart University-0.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Adams | 16.0% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Strothe | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Michael Russom | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Corina Radtke | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Whipple | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 0.6% |
| Mike Carr | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 5.7% | 1.5% |
| Max Nickbarg | 16.0% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Spector | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 19.0% | 17.6% | 6.9% |
| Colin Keil | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Earl Lin | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 16.0% | 65.7% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 15.9% | 20.0% | 15.8% | 7.7% |
| Tatum McLaughlin | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 32.9% | 17.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.