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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+4.90vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.71+6.77vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+3.61vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+5.22vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.12+3.80vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.72+3.14vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.92-1.91vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.04-0.84vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.12-1.65vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-2.04vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.78-5.38vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.08-4.41vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.58-3.79vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.19-3.81vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.88-3.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9Dartmouth College2.3811.1%1st Place
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8.77Northeastern University1.714.9%1st Place
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6.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.179.1%1st Place
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9.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.414.5%1st Place
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8.8Harvard University2.124.0%1st Place
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9.14Brown University1.724.3%1st Place
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5.09Yale University2.9213.6%1st Place
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7.16Tulane University2.048.1%1st Place
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7.35Tufts University2.128.1%1st Place
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7.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.4%1st Place
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5.62University of Rhode Island2.7811.2%1st Place
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7.59Bowdoin College2.086.6%1st Place
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9.21University of Vermont1.584.2%1st Place
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10.19University of South Florida1.192.9%1st Place
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11.37Connecticut College0.882.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Will Priebe | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 5.7% |
| Daniel Unangst | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% |
| Jed Bell | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 7.6% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 13.6% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Thad Lettsome | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Maks Groom | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.2% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Connell Phillipps | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 16.2% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 32.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.