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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.64+3.44vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+4.48vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.87+3.79vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.74+2.91vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.11+0.78vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.43+2.05vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.21vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.59+2.75vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.55+4.90vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College1.55+1.20vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University0.43+3.25vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.57-7.25vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.77-2.88vs Predicted
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14Sacred Heart University-0.16+1.32vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.74-4.64vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island3.18-10.35vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy1.22-4.87vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-1.20-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.44Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
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6.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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6.79Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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6.91SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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5.78Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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8.05Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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7.21University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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10.75Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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13.9Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.2Middlebury College1.550.0%1st Place
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14.25Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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4.75Yale University3.570.2%1st Place
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10.12George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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15.32Sacred Heart University-0.160.0%1st Place
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10.36Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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5.65University of Rhode Island3.180.1%1st Place
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12.13U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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16.9Wesleyan University-1.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Adams | 16.4% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Corina Radtke | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 11.5% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Domenic Re | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 20.4% | 15.2% | 6.0% |
| Alexander Strothe | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 0.1% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 19.6% | 20.9% | 8.7% |
| Max Nickbarg | 15.8% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Spector | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Tatum McLaughlin | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 16.5% | 30.5% | 18.4% |
| Colin Keil | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Alex Whipple | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% |
| Earl Lin | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 16.6% | 64.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.