← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University3.64+3.47vs Predicted
-
2Columbia University2.43+6.24vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+3.53vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College2.74+2.91vs Predicted
-
5University of Pennsylvania2.68+2.14vs Predicted
-
6Old Dominion University2.87+0.60vs Predicted
-
7Yale University3.57-2.45vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University3.11-2.19vs Predicted
-
9George Washington University1.77+1.21vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University1.74+0.57vs Predicted
-
11Villanova University1.59-0.07vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Military Academy1.22+0.33vs Predicted
-
13Princeton University0.55+0.71vs Predicted
-
14Middlebury College1.55-3.21vs Predicted
-
15Syracuse University0.43-0.82vs Predicted
-
16University of Rhode Island3.18-10.35vs Predicted
-
17Sacred Heart University-0.16-1.49vs Predicted
-
18Wesleyan University-1.20-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.47Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
-
8.24Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
-
6.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
-
6.91SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
-
7.14University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
-
6.6Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
-
4.55Yale University3.570.2%1st Place
-
5.81Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
-
10.21George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
-
10.57Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
-
10.93Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
-
12.33U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
-
13.71Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
-
10.79Middlebury College1.550.0%1st Place
-
14.18Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
-
5.65University of Rhode Island3.180.1%1st Place
-
15.51Sacred Heart University-0.160.0%1st Place
-
16.87Wesleyan University-1.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Adams | 16.2% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 6.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Corina Radtke | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Nickbarg | 16.2% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Spector | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Colin Keil | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Domenic Re | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 5.6% |
| Alexander Strothe | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Harmen Rockler | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 19.6% | 20.3% | 6.7% |
| Alex Whipple | 10.5% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tatum McLaughlin | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 10.0% | 17.1% | 31.5% | 20.3% |
| Earl Lin | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 17.2% | 64.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.