← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Rhode Island1.61+7.43vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+2.50vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University2.48+2.37vs Predicted
-
4Tulane University2.09+2.76vs Predicted
-
5Dartmouth College1.95+2.22vs Predicted
-
6University of Vermont0.71+4.59vs Predicted
-
7Bowdoin College2.06-0.41vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.69+3.15vs Predicted
-
9Yale University2.85-4.37vs Predicted
-
10Northeastern University1.59-0.78vs Predicted
-
11University of South Florida1.02-1.02vs Predicted
-
12Brown University1.25-3.03vs Predicted
-
13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45-4.93vs Predicted
-
14Connecticut College0.27-1.73vs Predicted
-
15Tufts University2.22-8.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.43University of Rhode Island1.614.3%1st Place
-
4.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4815.4%1st Place
-
5.37Harvard University2.4811.7%1st Place
-
6.76Tulane University2.097.0%1st Place
-
7.22Dartmouth College1.956.9%1st Place
-
10.59University of Vermont0.712.9%1st Place
-
6.59Bowdoin College2.069.3%1st Place
-
11.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.692.2%1st Place
-
4.63Yale University2.8515.6%1st Place
-
9.22Northeastern University1.594.0%1st Place
-
9.98University of South Florida1.022.3%1st Place
-
8.97Brown University1.253.5%1st Place
-
8.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.3%1st Place
-
12.27Connecticut College0.270.9%1st Place
-
6.25Tufts University2.228.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Williams | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 15.4% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.7% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter Foley III | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 13.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| David Pearce | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 17.1% | 21.3% |
| Stephan Baker | 15.6% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 5.3% |
| Jordan Byrd | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 10.3% |
| William George | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 4.9% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 16.9% | 36.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.