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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University1.59+8.12vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.22+4.10vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+1.49vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.48+1.19vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.85-0.40vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.71+4.59vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.95+0.16vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.69+3.22vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45-0.95vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.61-1.48vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.09-4.26vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.06-5.25vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.27-0.72vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.25-4.81vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.02-5.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.12Northeastern University1.593.8%1st Place
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6.1Tufts University2.228.6%1st Place
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4.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4817.4%1st Place
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5.19Harvard University2.4811.7%1st Place
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4.6Yale University2.8514.9%1st Place
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10.59University of Vermont0.712.6%1st Place
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7.16Dartmouth College1.956.8%1st Place
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11.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.691.5%1st Place
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8.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.8%1st Place
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8.52University of Rhode Island1.614.9%1st Place
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6.74Tulane University2.097.6%1st Place
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6.75Bowdoin College2.067.2%1st Place
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12.28Connecticut College0.271.5%1st Place
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9.19Brown University1.253.1%1st Place
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10.0University of South Florida1.022.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 17.4% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.7% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 14.9% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 14.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| David Pearce | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 16.4% | 21.6% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Miles Williams | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Peter Foley III | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 19.0% | 34.4% |
| William George | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 5.4% |
| Jordan Byrd | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.