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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.64+3.51vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.74+5.25vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.48vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.11+1.81vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.57-0.50vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.87+0.62vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.18-1.40vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.69vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.43-0.98vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.55+4.06vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.77-0.60vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.59-0.80vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College1.55-2.08vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.74-3.79vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy1.22-2.94vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University0.22-1.18vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University0.43-2.69vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-1.20-1.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.25SUNY Maritime College2.740.0%1st Place
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7.48University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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5.81Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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4.5Yale University3.570.2%1st Place
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6.62Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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5.6University of Rhode Island3.180.1%1st Place
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6.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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8.02Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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14.06Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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10.4George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.2Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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10.92Middlebury College1.550.0%1st Place
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10.21Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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12.06U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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14.82Fairfield University0.220.0%1st Place
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14.31Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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16.93Wesleyan University-1.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Adams | 15.7% | 14.6% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 4.6% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Nickbarg | 18.0% | 14.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Corina Radtke | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Whipple | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 20.9% | 19.8% | 6.5% |
| Jay Spector | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Domenic Re | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Alexander Strothe | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Colin Keil | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 1.2% |
| Christopher Tortolani | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 16.7% | 26.9% | 13.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 19.2% | 21.7% | 9.3% |
| Earl Lin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 14.2% | 67.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.