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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.39vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.05+2.64vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+4.48vs Predicted
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4Columbia University1.02+7.01vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.19+2.08vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.24+4.39vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.47-0.83vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.51-2.04vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.76-3.81vs Predicted
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10Villanova University1.70-1.05vs Predicted
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11Wesleyan University0.77+1.04vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.03+2.43vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.00-5.31vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College0.67-1.98vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.63-6.00vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy0.00-1.70vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-0.22-2.13vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University-0.54-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.39University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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4.64Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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11.01Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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7.08University of Rhode Island2.190.1%1st Place
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10.39Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.17Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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5.96Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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5.19Yale University2.760.1%1st Place
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8.95Villanova University1.700.0%1st Place
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12.04Wesleyan University0.770.0%1st Place
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14.43Princeton University0.030.0%1st Place
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7.69SUNY Maritime College2.000.1%1st Place
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12.02Middlebury College0.670.0%1st Place
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9.0George Washington University1.630.0%1st Place
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14.3U. S. Military Academy0.000.0%1st Place
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14.87Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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15.38Fairfield University-0.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 16.9% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 13.1% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Patrick Penwell | 6.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Gatto | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Adam Keally | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 9.7% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marly Isler | 12.5% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Ingham | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Justine Mitchell | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 3.3% |
| Elizabeth Sipp | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 20.0% | 16.3% |
| Lauren Albano | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Meghan Colwell | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% |
| Benjaim Helfand | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jack Pinnell | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 15.6% | 16.8% | 16.7% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 15.2% | 19.7% | 23.8% |
| Alex Vivenzio | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 18.9% | 33.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.