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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+3.45vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.95+5.26vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.09+3.48vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.85+0.61vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.69+6.21vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.61+2.50vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.48-1.69vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.22-1.68vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-2.46vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45-1.90vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.02-0.93vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.71-1.28vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.27-0.79vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.25-4.78vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-6.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4817.1%1st Place
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7.26Dartmouth College1.956.8%1st Place
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6.48Tulane University2.098.0%1st Place
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4.61Yale University2.8516.5%1st Place
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11.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.691.8%1st Place
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8.5University of Rhode Island1.613.9%1st Place
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5.31Harvard University2.4810.7%1st Place
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6.32Tufts University2.228.9%1st Place
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6.54Bowdoin College2.068.0%1st Place
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8.1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.2%1st Place
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10.07University of South Florida1.022.7%1st Place
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10.72University of Vermont0.711.8%1st Place
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12.21Connecticut College0.271.1%1st Place
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9.22Brown University1.253.2%1st Place
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9.0Northeastern University1.594.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 17.1% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Peter Foley III | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 16.5% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Pearce | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 17.1% | 19.3% |
| Miles Williams | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.7% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Jordan Byrd | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 10.2% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 13.6% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 16.3% | 38.3% |
| William George | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 5.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.