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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.00+6.98vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.47+4.31vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.19+4.29vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+3.23vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.05-0.58vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.16-1.78vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.76-1.75vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.51-2.04vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.70-0.31vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College0.67+2.40vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.63-1.83vs Predicted
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12Wesleyan University0.77+0.23vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.24-2.82vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.03-0.06vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.02-3.82vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University-0.22-1.14vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University-0.54-1.40vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy0.00-3.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.98SUNY Maritime College2.000.0%1st Place
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6.31Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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7.29University of Rhode Island2.190.1%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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4.42Brown University3.050.2%1st Place
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4.22University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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5.25Yale University2.760.1%1st Place
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5.96Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.69Villanova University1.700.0%1st Place
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12.4Middlebury College0.670.0%1st Place
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9.17George Washington University1.630.0%1st Place
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12.23Wesleyan University0.770.0%1st Place
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10.18Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.94Princeton University0.030.0%1st Place
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11.18Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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14.86Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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15.6Fairfield University-0.540.0%1st Place
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14.1U. S. Military Academy0.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Albano | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Adam Keally | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Penwell | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 18.9% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 17.4% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marly Isler | 11.3% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Ingham | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Meghan Colwell | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 4.5% |
| Benjaim Helfand | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Justine Mitchell | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 4.0% |
| Alex Gatto | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth Sipp | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 17.1% | 14.0% |
| John Koehler | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 18.4% | 24.1% |
| Alex Vivenzio | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 19.6% | 36.9% |
| Jack Pinnell | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 16.8% | 16.5% | 13.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.