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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.58vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.09+4.64vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+1.67vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.69+7.13vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.25+4.23vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+0.63vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+1.09vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.48-2.75vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.61-0.54vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.59-0.97vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.22-4.84vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida1.02-2.09vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.27-0.74vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.71-3.32vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College1.95-7.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58Yale University2.8515.8%1st Place
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6.64Tulane University2.097.4%1st Place
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4.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4814.3%1st Place
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11.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.692.1%1st Place
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9.23Brown University1.253.3%1st Place
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6.63Bowdoin College2.069.4%1st Place
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8.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.0%1st Place
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5.25Harvard University2.4813.0%1st Place
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8.46University of Rhode Island1.614.7%1st Place
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9.03Northeastern University1.594.3%1st Place
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6.16Tufts University2.229.1%1st Place
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9.91University of South Florida1.022.9%1st Place
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12.26Connecticut College0.270.7%1st Place
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10.68University of Vermont0.711.7%1st Place
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7.28Dartmouth College1.956.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 15.8% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Foley III | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 14.3% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| David Pearce | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 18.1% | 20.2% |
| William George | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Miles Williams | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 2.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Byrd | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.1% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 17.5% | 36.4% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 15.7% | 15.6% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.