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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.09+5.80vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.06+4.58vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+5.09vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.22+2.10vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-0.43vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.85-1.40vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.25+2.19vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College1.95-0.70vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.48-3.78vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.61-1.52vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.69+0.19vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida1.02-1.85vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.59-3.83vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.27-1.84vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.71-4.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.8Tulane University2.098.3%1st Place
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6.58Bowdoin College2.068.0%1st Place
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8.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.5%1st Place
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6.1Tufts University2.228.6%1st Place
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4.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4816.4%1st Place
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4.6Yale University2.8515.0%1st Place
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9.19Brown University1.253.0%1st Place
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7.3Dartmouth College1.956.9%1st Place
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5.22Harvard University2.4812.9%1st Place
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8.48University of Rhode Island1.614.2%1st Place
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11.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.691.5%1st Place
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10.15University of South Florida1.023.0%1st Place
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9.17Northeastern University1.593.3%1st Place
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12.16Connecticut College0.271.4%1st Place
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10.41University of Vermont0.712.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Foley III | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 16.4% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 15.0% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William George | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 5.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 12.9% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| David Pearce | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 16.9% | 19.9% |
| Jordan Byrd | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 10.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 5.6% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 16.8% | 37.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 14.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.