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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.68vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.95+5.24vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.09+3.56vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.22+2.05vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.69+6.09vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-1.44vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+0.97vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.48-2.79vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.25+0.14vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.06-3.25vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.02-0.82vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.27+0.06vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.61-4.39vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.59-4.75vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.71-4.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68Yale University2.8515.8%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College1.956.4%1st Place
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6.56Tulane University2.097.1%1st Place
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6.05Tufts University2.229.1%1st Place
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11.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.692.2%1st Place
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4.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4815.7%1st Place
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7.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.5%1st Place
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5.21Harvard University2.4812.2%1st Place
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9.14Brown University1.253.9%1st Place
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6.75Bowdoin College2.068.5%1st Place
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10.18University of South Florida1.022.5%1st Place
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12.06Connecticut College0.271.6%1st Place
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8.61University of Rhode Island1.614.5%1st Place
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9.25Northeastern University1.593.4%1st Place
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10.67University of Vermont0.711.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 15.8% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Peter Foley III | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| David Pearce | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 18.6% | 19.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 15.7% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| William George | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Byrd | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 9.7% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 36.1% |
| Miles Williams | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.5% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 14.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.