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📊 Prediction Accuracy
88.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Wesleyan University2.71+1.63vs Predicted
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3Bates College2.43+0.18vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.12+1.60vs Predicted
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5Maine Maritime Academy1.55-0.47vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire1.52-1.42vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College1.35-1.99vs Predicted
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8University of Connecticut0.51-1.29vs Predicted
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9Williams College-0.03-1.48vs Predicted
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10Brandeis University1.25-4.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.63Wesleyan University2.710.3%1st Place
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3.18Bates College2.430.2%1st Place
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5.6Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.120.1%1st Place
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4.53Maine Maritime Academy1.550.1%1st Place
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4.58University of New Hampshire1.520.1%1st Place
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5.01Middlebury College1.350.1%1st Place
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6.71University of Connecticut0.510.0%1st Place
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7.52Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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5.25Brandeis University1.250.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGlynn | 31.4% | 24.5% | 17.7% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Holmberg | 21.8% | 21.6% | 17.8% | 15.2% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Karl Ryder | 5.5% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 16.3% | 16.7% | 8.1% |
| Rinchen Harrison | 9.6% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% |
| Will Humphrey | 9.6% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 4.3% |
| Terry Duncan | 8.8% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 14.5% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 9.8% | 4.8% |
| Austin Smyth | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 25.2% | 23.9% |
| Jorge Castro | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 17.2% | 49.3% |
| Jared Dunn | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 15.3% | 15.7% | 12.7% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.