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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Military Academy2.05+4.95vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.86+4.70vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.55+5.43vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.55+4.61vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.55-0.47vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.67+0.78vs Predicted
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7Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26+1.42vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.80vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.60+2.19vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College1.08-0.25vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida0.90-1.69vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.05-2.73vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.07-3.62vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.38-5.76vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.42-6.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.95U. S. Military Academy2.0510.2%1st Place
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6.7Brown University1.868.3%1st Place
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8.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.555.1%1st Place
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8.61Harvard University1.555.0%1st Place
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4.53Yale University2.5516.9%1st Place
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6.78Tufts University1.678.6%1st Place
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8.42Palm Beach Atlantic University1.264.6%1st Place
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5.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3212.6%1st Place
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11.19Connecticut College0.602.0%1st Place
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9.75Bowdoin College1.083.1%1st Place
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9.31University of South Florida0.904.0%1st Place
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9.27University of Vermont1.054.3%1st Place
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9.38Northeastern University1.074.3%1st Place
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8.24University of Rhode Island1.386.3%1st Place
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8.23Tulane University1.424.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Paul | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Matthew Elliott | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% |
| Eric Hansen | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% |
| Emma Cowles | 16.9% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| John Eastman | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Thomas Green | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 12.6% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 27.5% |
| Jonathan Chance | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 13.2% |
| Andreas Keswater | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.7% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.1% |
| Jonathan Riley | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% |
| William Keenan | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.