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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+4.09vs Predicted
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2Harvard University1.55+6.64vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.67+3.77vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida0.90+5.38vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.86+1.53vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.55+2.45vs Predicted
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7Tulane University1.42+1.28vs Predicted
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8Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26+0.70vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy2.05-2.94vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.38-1.65vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.55-6.56vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.60-0.98vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College1.08-3.17vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.07-4.76vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.05-5.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3213.9%1st Place
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8.64Harvard University1.554.9%1st Place
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6.77Tufts University1.678.0%1st Place
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9.38University of South Florida0.903.6%1st Place
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6.53Brown University1.868.9%1st Place
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8.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.553.7%1st Place
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8.28Tulane University1.426.2%1st Place
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8.7Palm Beach Atlantic University1.264.7%1st Place
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6.06U. S. Military Academy2.059.7%1st Place
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8.35University of Rhode Island1.384.2%1st Place
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4.44Yale University2.5518.6%1st Place
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11.02Connecticut College0.602.6%1st Place
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9.83Bowdoin College1.083.1%1st Place
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9.24Northeastern University1.073.6%1st Place
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9.2University of Vermont1.054.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 13.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Eric Hansen | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% |
| John Eastman | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Andreas Keswater | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 10.0% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Matthew Elliott | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.2% |
| William Keenan | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| Thomas Green | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% |
| James Paul | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Riley | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% |
| Emma Cowles | 18.6% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 25.4% |
| Jonathan Chance | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 14.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.