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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Wesleyan University2.71+1.63vs Predicted
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2Bates College2.43+1.19vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire1.52+0.81vs Predicted
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5Maine Maritime Academy1.55-0.44vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.12-0.64vs Predicted
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7Brandeis University1.25-1.75vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College1.35-2.92vs Predicted
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9University of Connecticut0.51-2.36vs Predicted
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10Williams College-0.03-2.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.63Wesleyan University2.710.3%1st Place
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3.19Bates College2.430.2%1st Place
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4.81University of New Hampshire1.520.1%1st Place
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4.56Maine Maritime Academy1.550.1%1st Place
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5.36Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.120.1%1st Place
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5.25Brandeis University1.250.1%1st Place
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5.08Middlebury College1.350.1%1st Place
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6.64University of Connecticut0.510.0%1st Place
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7.49Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGlynn | 31.4% | 23.3% | 19.3% | 11.9% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Holmberg | 21.2% | 23.5% | 16.3% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Will Humphrey | 8.1% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.9% |
| Rinchen Harrison | 9.6% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% |
| Karl Ryder | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 9.5% |
| Jared Dunn | 7.9% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 5.9% |
| Terry Duncan | 8.3% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 15.1% | 15.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 5.5% |
| Austin Smyth | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 16.6% | 23.2% | 23.8% |
| Jorge Castro | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 17.6% | 49.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.