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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2Wesleyan University2.71+0.50vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire1.52+1.78vs Predicted
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4Maine Maritime Academy1.55+0.57vs Predicted
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5Bates College2.43-2.11vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.12-0.80vs Predicted
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7Brandeis University0.61-0.73vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College1.35-3.07vs Predicted
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9University of Connecticut0.51-2.52vs Predicted
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10Williams College-0.03-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.5Wesleyan University2.710.3%1st Place
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4.78University of New Hampshire1.520.1%1st Place
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4.57Maine Maritime Academy1.550.1%1st Place
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2.89Bates College2.430.2%1st Place
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5.2Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.120.1%1st Place
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6.27Brandeis University0.610.0%1st Place
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4.93Middlebury College1.350.1%1st Place
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6.48University of Connecticut0.510.0%1st Place
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7.38Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGlynn | 33.1% | 26.0% | 16.8% | 13.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Will Humphrey | 7.3% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 17.2% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 4.2% |
| Rinchen Harrison | 9.8% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 16.3% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 7.2% | 1.8% |
| Tommy Holmberg | 24.9% | 23.7% | 19.3% | 14.6% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Karl Ryder | 7.2% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 7.6% |
| Dan Marks | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 17.0% | 20.9% | 16.6% |
| Terry Duncan | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 17.9% | 15.7% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Austin Smyth | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 22.6% | 20.3% |
| Jorge Castro | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 18.3% | 44.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.