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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bates College2.43+1.95vs Predicted
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2Wesleyan University2.71+0.66vs Predicted
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4Maine Maritime Academy1.55+0.57vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire1.52-0.50vs Predicted
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6Brandeis University0.61+0.20vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.12-1.66vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College1.35-3.08vs Predicted
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9University of Connecticut0.51-2.50vs Predicted
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10Williams College-0.03-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.95Bates College2.430.3%1st Place
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2.66Wesleyan University2.710.3%1st Place
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4.57Maine Maritime Academy1.550.1%1st Place
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4.5University of New Hampshire1.520.1%1st Place
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6.2Brandeis University0.610.0%1st Place
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5.34Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.120.1%1st Place
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4.92Middlebury College1.350.1%1st Place
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6.5University of Connecticut0.510.0%1st Place
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7.38Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Holmberg | 25.6% | 21.8% | 19.0% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| John McGlynn | 29.4% | 26.1% | 18.2% | 12.6% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Rinchen Harrison | 9.7% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 1.8% |
| Will Humphrey | 9.6% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 15.6% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| Dan Marks | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 21.0% | 18.3% |
| Karl Ryder | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 14.6% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 6.7% |
| Terry Duncan | 8.5% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 16.9% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 3.9% |
| Austin Smyth | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 16.8% | 21.9% | 21.2% |
| Jorge Castro | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 18.1% | 45.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.