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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bates College1.32+3.43vs Predicted
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3Maine Maritime Academy2.03+0.31vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College1.85-0.55vs Predicted
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5Wesleyan University1.87-1.68vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.27+0.18vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire1.35-2.73vs Predicted
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8Brandeis University0.59-2.17vs Predicted
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9Williams College0.59-3.21vs Predicted
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10University of Connecticut-1.50-1.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.43Bates College1.320.1%1st Place
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3.31Maine Maritime Academy2.030.2%1st Place
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3.45Middlebury College1.850.2%1st Place
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3.32Wesleyan University1.870.2%1st Place
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6.18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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4.27University of New Hampshire1.350.1%1st Place
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5.83Brandeis University0.590.1%1st Place
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5.79Williams College0.590.1%1st Place
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8.43University of Connecticut-1.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Moan | 12.5% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 17.2% | 14.8% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 0.9% |
| Hollister Poole | 18.2% | 22.0% | 17.8% | 17.5% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 20.2% | 18.3% | 15.5% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Brooke Baker | 21.0% | 19.0% | 18.9% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Smith | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 19.0% | 27.4% | 9.4% |
| William Dykes | 11.4% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Jacob Hardy | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 16.6% | 19.0% | 22.6% | 4.9% |
| Brent Bomkamp | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 18.9% | 23.3% | 5.4% |
| Timothy Donahoe | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 78.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.