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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+6.66vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.61+5.38vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.85+4.11vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.56+5.39vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.90+2.24vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+2.25vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.79+3.06vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.81+3.50vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.51-0.50vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.78+0.70vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.73-1.13vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.12-2.07vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-3.59vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.75-6.07vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.49-6.82vs Predicted
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16Florida State University1.62-3.99vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.27-4.10vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.36-5.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.657.8%1st Place
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7.38Stanford University2.618.2%1st Place
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7.11Brown University2.859.2%1st Place
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9.39Boston College2.564.4%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College2.908.7%1st Place
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8.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.6%1st Place
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10.06Boston University1.793.8%1st Place
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11.5Old Dominion University1.813.3%1st Place
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8.5SUNY Maritime College2.516.6%1st Place
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10.7North Carolina State University1.783.2%1st Place
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9.87Webb Institute1.735.2%1st Place
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9.93Tufts University2.124.5%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.1%1st Place
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7.93Georgetown University2.757.6%1st Place
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8.18College of Charleston2.496.5%1st Place
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12.01Florida State University1.623.4%1st Place
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12.9George Washington University1.272.5%1st Place
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12.99University of Wisconsin1.362.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Tyler Mowry | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 13.8% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 19.4% |
| Reed Weston | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 21.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.