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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27+6.13vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.92+1.93vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+6.46vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology4.33+2.16vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.63+3.50vs Predicted
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7Tufts University4.33+0.23vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.61+1.82vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston4.34-2.05vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.48+3.67vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida4.10-3.18vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College4.06-3.74vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.71-3.57vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.56-3.85vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University1.57+0.51vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy4.34-8.99vs Predicted
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17Fordham University3.53-6.81vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College4.15-10.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
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4.93Boston College4.920.2%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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7.16Massachusetts Institute of Technology4.330.1%1st Place
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9.5University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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7.23Tufts University4.330.1%1st Place
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9.82Old Dominion University3.610.0%1st Place
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6.95College of Charleston4.340.1%1st Place
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13.67Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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7.82University of South Florida4.100.1%1st Place
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8.26Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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9.43Roger Williams University3.710.0%1st Place
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10.15Boston University3.560.0%1st Place
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15.51Northwestern University1.570.0%1st Place
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7.01U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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10.19Fordham University3.530.0%1st Place
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7.78SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Kirkland | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Taylor Canfield | 15.2% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 2.8% |
| Joshua Leighton | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Tomas Hornos | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Alan Alkins | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 1.6% |
| Jackson Benvenutti | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 12.6% | 27.4% | 21.1% |
| Mitchell Hall | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Sam Williams | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Martim Anderson | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 1.9% |
| Ryan Pesch | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% |
| Justin Cohler | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 6.7% | 15.4% | 61.6% |
| Robert Vann | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Carl Shorett | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.