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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.72+6.09vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.68+1.44vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.94+2.90vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.33+3.66vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College1.71+1.51vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.42+1.48vs Predicted
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7Yale University1.25+2.22vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.67-1.87vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.31-0.50vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49-2.59vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.88-1.20vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University0.73-2.24vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.77-3.50vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.97-5.07vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University-0.70-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.09Brown University1.727.1%1st Place
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3.44Roger Williams University2.6824.9%1st Place
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5.9Roger Williams University1.949.8%1st Place
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7.66Brown University1.336.3%1st Place
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6.51Dartmouth College1.717.5%1st Place
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7.48University of Rhode Island1.425.6%1st Place
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9.22Yale University1.253.4%1st Place
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6.13Tufts University1.678.8%1st Place
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8.5Salve Regina University1.315.0%1st Place
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7.41Northwestern University1.496.9%1st Place
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9.8Connecticut College0.883.1%1st Place
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9.76Fairfield University0.733.0%1st Place
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9.5Northeastern University0.773.6%1st Place
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8.93Boston University0.973.6%1st Place
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12.7Salve Regina University-0.701.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Bell | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 24.9% | 20.5% | 15.7% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| bella casaretto | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 7.0% |
| John Eastman | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Nils Tullberg | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Shea Smith | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 8.9% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 8.6% |
| Peter Taboada | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 8.6% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 5.1% |
| Sean Crandall | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 13.9% | 49.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.