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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College1.71+4.78vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College0.88+7.06vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.55+3.56vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.67+1.50vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.24+2.62vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University1.31+1.48vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University-0.70+5.55vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.25-0.98vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.49-2.13vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.01-1.56vs Predicted
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11Boston University0.97-2.53vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.25-3.38vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.42-6.24vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.46-3.64vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University0.73-6.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78Dartmouth College1.7111.0%1st Place
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9.06Connecticut College0.885.0%1st Place
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6.56Brown University1.559.4%1st Place
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5.5Tufts University1.6712.4%1st Place
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7.62Roger Williams University1.246.5%1st Place
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7.48Salve Regina University1.317.4%1st Place
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12.55Salve Regina University-0.701.2%1st Place
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7.02Brown University1.258.2%1st Place
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6.87Northwestern University1.498.8%1st Place
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8.44Roger Williams University1.014.9%1st Place
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8.47Boston University0.975.0%1st Place
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8.62Yale University1.254.9%1st Place
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6.76University of Rhode Island1.428.5%1st Place
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10.36Northeastern University0.462.2%1st Place
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8.92Fairfield University0.734.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bella casaretto | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 7.5% |
| Emily Mueller | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| John Eastman | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| William Bailey | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| Nils Tullberg | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Sean Crandall | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 45.1% |
| William George | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Shea Smith | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Luke Hosek | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.5% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.4% |
| Tyler Nash | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Aidan Boni | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.