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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.67+4.46vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.49+4.89vs Predicted
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3Fairfield University0.73+5.93vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University1.31+3.87vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.25+3.53vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.46+4.29vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.71-1.23vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.25-0.70vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.24-1.63vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.55-3.52vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University-0.70+1.31vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.42-5.24vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.88-3.68vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.01-5.73vs Predicted
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15Boston University0.97-6.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.46Tufts University1.6713.7%1st Place
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6.89Northwestern University1.498.4%1st Place
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8.93Fairfield University0.734.4%1st Place
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7.87Salve Regina University1.316.1%1st Place
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8.53Yale University1.255.0%1st Place
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10.29Northeastern University0.463.3%1st Place
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5.77Dartmouth College1.7110.8%1st Place
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7.3Brown University1.257.6%1st Place
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7.37Roger Williams University1.247.5%1st Place
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6.48Brown University1.559.3%1st Place
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12.31Salve Regina University-0.701.3%1st Place
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6.76University of Rhode Island1.428.3%1st Place
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9.32Connecticut College0.884.1%1st Place
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8.27Roger Williams University1.015.5%1st Place
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8.44Boston University0.974.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Eastman | 13.7% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
Shea Smith | 8.4% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
Wilson Kaznoski | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 6.5% |
Nils Tullberg | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
Christophe Chaumont | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.5% |
Aidan Boni | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 15.3% | 15.2% |
bella casaretto | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
William George | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
William Bailey | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
Emily Mueller | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
Sean Crandall | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 14.8% | 43.1% |
Tyler Nash | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
Ryan Mckinney | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% |
Luke Hosek | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.5% |
Elliott Mendenhall | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.