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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii3.04+2.62vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.90+0.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+2.89vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego2.19+1.59vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+0.26vs Predicted
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6Santa Clara University1.42+1.29vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay1.63-0.43vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine1.71-1.57vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.44+0.22vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.40-2.84vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay1.63-4.43vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California1.52-5.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.62University of Hawaii3.040.1%1st Place
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2.15Stanford University3.900.4%1st Place
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5.89University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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5.59University of California at San Diego2.190.1%1st Place
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5.26California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.1%1st Place
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7.29Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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6.57California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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6.43University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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9.22University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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7.16University of California at Berkeley1.400.0%1st Place
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6.57California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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6.82University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeline Kennedy | 14.8% | 20.6% | 18.1% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 42.8% | 26.3% | 15.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 7.9% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 5.5% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 49.4% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Goldberg | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 16.2% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 3.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.