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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.90+1.29vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.04+1.62vs Predicted
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3Santa Clara University1.42+4.36vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay1.63+2.91vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego2.19+0.46vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine1.35+1.41vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-1.38vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.47-3.24vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.40-1.68vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy2.25-4.76vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay1.63-4.09vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.29Stanford University3.900.4%1st Place
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3.62University of Hawaii3.040.2%1st Place
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7.36Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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6.91California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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5.46University of California at San Diego2.190.1%1st Place
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7.41University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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5.62University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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4.76University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Berkeley1.400.0%1st Place
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5.24California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.1%1st Place
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6.91California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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10.01University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Vargas | 36.6% | 28.5% | 17.1% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 17.3% | 18.0% | 18.1% | 15.6% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 16.3% | 19.7% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 14.6% | 19.6% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 9.9% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Goldberg | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 18.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Louise Lehman | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 66.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.