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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.73+5.36vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.08+8.36vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.45+5.23vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.43vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.21vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan1.12+7.33vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+4.80vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.46+0.27vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.78-0.91vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.55+1.98vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-4.65vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.32-2.89vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.38-4.19vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.92-3.24vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.25-5.94vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii2.27-7.49vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-8.06vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.89-5.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.36Yale University2.7311.6%1st Place
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10.36Bowdoin College2.083.1%1st Place
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8.23Roger Williams University2.457.8%1st Place
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8.43University of Pennsylvania2.426.9%1st Place
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10.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.7%1st Place
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13.33University of Michigan1.122.1%1st Place
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11.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.542.6%1st Place
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8.27Tulane University2.466.6%1st Place
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8.09University of Rhode Island2.786.9%1st Place
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11.98Jacksonville University1.552.8%1st Place
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6.35Harvard University3.0510.5%1st Place
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9.11University of Miami2.325.1%1st Place
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8.81Cornell University2.386.5%1st Place
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10.76Connecticut College1.923.8%1st Place
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9.06U. S. Naval Academy2.255.5%1st Place
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8.51University of Hawaii2.276.3%1st Place
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8.94University of California at Santa Barbara2.045.0%1st Place
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12.42Fordham University1.892.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 11.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Lukens | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Will Murray | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 25.4% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Matthew King | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 12.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Hayden Earl | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% |
| Gavin McJones | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| Bastien Rasse | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 17.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.